30 days · Market review
30 days: technology profits, energy and borrowing costs
Over 30 days, technology companies reported strong revenue and profit, while other businesses still faced the risk of higher energy and borrowing costs. In late September, the US and China proposed reductions in some import tariffs, and NVIDIA increased its share-repurchase authorisation. Lower tariffs are not yet in force, and authorisation alone does not mean purchases have been completed. The review follows what changed during the period and how it could affect company profits.
Period covered: 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-29Information as of 15 min read
Important news followed the morning of 28 September: Monday’s US ten-year yield rose to 5.24%, the ECB president discussed energy-related inflation risks, and NVIDIA announced an additional $150 billion share-repurchase authorisation. These are developments from 28 September, not new decisions this morning. US job-openings data are due later on 29 September.
The proposed US–China import tariff reductions are not yet in force. NVIDIA’s authorisation does not mean the shares have already been repurchased. Energy inventories measure stored quantities, not current prices. Companies need to be assessed by their orders, cash generation and borrowing costs. Even rising profit does not guarantee a good investment if too much is paid for the shares.
30 days
What happened
The 26 August starting backdrop: growth with cautious consumption
This period begins on 31 August. Data released on 26 August establish its starting conditions, rather than being news within the period. The second estimate of US second-quarter gross domestic product, released on 26 August, showed annualised growth of 1.5%. That is about 0.4% above the previous quarter, not 1.5% growth in three months. Private domestic demand grew faster than the headline measure, so a single figure did not describe conditions for every business.
Consumption data also showed that more dollars spent do not necessarily mean more goods bought. July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, released on 26 August, showed annual price growth of 3.7%. Real consumption expenditure, which removes the effect of prices, increased by less than 0.1% over the month. This distinction is worth remembering when reading companies’ reports of rising revenue.
The 26 August backdrop and September results: technology demand became profit
Technology companies reported rapid revenue and profit growth despite the risk of higher costs. On 26 August, chip designer NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of 96.221 billion US dollars, up 106% year on year. Operating profit under US accounting standards grew even faster, by 124%. These are results for the quarter ended 26 July, although the company calls it the second quarter of fiscal 2027.
Semiconductor and infrastructure software company Broadcom also confirmed revenue growth on 2 September. Its quarterly revenue reached 29.6 billion dollars, up 86% year on year. Two companies do not represent the whole sector, but their results show that some demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure has already turned into sales. How much the customers buying that equipment will earn remains a separate question.
Early September: the economy grew while energy became more expensive
Euro-area economic growth was accompanied by faster energy-price increases. The preliminary euro-area estimate for August, released on 1 September, showed annual consumer price inflation of 3.3%, compared with 2.9% in July. Energy prices rose 14.3% year on year, while services inflation slowed. Prices were moving unevenly, rather than the entire consumer basket getting more expensive at one uniform pace.
On 7 September, euro-area second-quarter growth was revised to 0.6% quarter on quarter. That was a better estimate of an earlier period, not extra growth that suddenly appeared in September. The US increase of 162,000 jobs in August, announced on 4 September, also showed resilience. June and July gains had been much smaller. These figures did not show the sharp economic weakening that could prompt rapid interest-rate cuts.
The oil problem was delivery as well as price
Unreliable supply complicated the energy story. On 5 and 8 September, US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian tankers. These are statements from a party to the conflict, not an independent measurement of all oil flows. Even so, they were a reminder that June’s diplomatic agreement did not yet mean shipping had been reliably restored.
The US Energy Information Administration’s 9 September forecast projected an average Brent price of about 90 US dollars per barrel in the second half of the year. That was an increase of 8 dollars, or roughly a tenth, from the previous forecast of 82 dollars. Model inputs were finalised on 3 September, so this revision cannot be attributed to later military statements. It is a forecast, not today’s exchange price. For hauliers and energy-importing factories, what matters is whether recovering supply reduces fuel and energy costs.
10 September: Europe chose higher interest rates
The European Central Bank decided to raise all three key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. The deposit facility rate rose from 2.25% to 2.50% on 16 September. The decision has been made, but its effective date is not its announcement date.
In the bank’s forecasts, the energy shock remains an obstacle to returning inflation to its 2% target. That complicates conditions for companies facing higher fuel and borrowing costs at the same time. Banks’ interest income may rise, but weaker customers increase the risk of loan defaults. A central bank rate increase is therefore not equally good news for the entire financial sector.
11 September: annual inflation was unchanged, but monthly price growth accelerated
The US Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose 3.4% year on year in August, the same as in July. The monthly change, adjusted for normal seasonal patterns, nevertheless accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%. These data were already released on 11 September; this is not a future event.
The picture excluding food and energy is also mixed. Annual growth slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%, but monthly growth rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. It is therefore inaccurate to say that all price pressure intensified by the same amount. The central bank will have to consider both the pace in recent months and the broader trend.
How can annual inflation stay unchanged while monthly inflation rises?
The annual change compares the price level with the same month a year earlier. The monthly change compares two adjacent months. A new price increase can replace a similar older month, leaving the annual figure unchanged. The measure excluding food and energy helps show the direction of other prices, but does not capture a household’s whole bill.
? How should we read GDP and price indices?
Gross domestic product measures the value of final goods and services produced in an economy. Real growth removes the effect of prices. US quarterly growth is often reported at an annualised rate, as if the same change continued for four quarters. The Consumer Price Index measures a basket of prices weighted by consumption. Its annual and monthly changes have different comparison bases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index also includes spending made on consumers’ behalf, uses different weights and accounts for changes in the composition of consumption; these two price indices should not be treated as interchangeable.
11 September: the wait for an energy supply recovery grew longer
The International Energy Agency’s 11 September forecast projected a larger fall in oil supply than in demand this year. This is a forecast, not the final annual result.
France: higher bond yields could increase government interest costs
France’s ten-year government bond yield benchmark was 4.48% on 14 September, compared with 4.19% on 1 September. The move over these sessions is 0.29 percentage points; it is not a monthly investment return. The higher cost of new debt can increase the budget’s interest expense over time, but coupons on existing fixed-rate debt do not automatically change.
16–24 September: US bond yields rose again after a brief decline
On 16 September the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00%. An earlier European decision lifting the deposit rate to 2.50% took effect on the same day. The US ten-year yield fell to 4.96% on 21–22 September, but reached 5.18% on 24 September. The fall in US bond yields was therefore short-lived.
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The preliminary US Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, reached 58.4 in the release of 23 September, compared with 56.0 in August. Initial unemployment benefit claims of 197,000 for the week ending 19 September, released on 24 September, added to the evidence that the economy was not weakening sharply. These are signals from 23–24 September, but neither a survey nor one week of claims is a final measure of an entire quarter’s growth.
? Purchasing Managers’ Index: what does the threshold mean?
The company survey compares activity with the previous month. Above 50 generally indicates expansion and below 50 contraction. A reading of 58.4 does not mean growth of 58.4%; the preliminary measure may be revised.
September’s decisions extended beyond the US and euro area. On 18 September the Bank of Japan set an overnight interest-rate target of 1.25%, effective from 24 September. On 17 September the Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75%. These different paths matter for Japanese bonds and yen-funded investments, as well as British companies’ borrowing costs.
25–28 September: uneven demand and trade relief not yet in force
US August durable-goods orders, reported on 25 September, reached $338.6 billion and were virtually unchanged from revised July. Orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft nevertheless rose 1.6%, while shipments increased 0.6%. These are monthly changes adjusted for seasonality, but not for prices. On the same day, the University of Michigan’s final September consumer sentiment index stood at 48.1, compared with 51.7 in August. Business-equipment demand and households’ assessments were therefore sending different signals.
On 27 September, the White House published US and Chinese product lists proposed for lower import tariffs worth about $30 billion in each direction. These were published lists, not tariff reductions already in force. On 28 September, China reported that August profit at larger industrial enterprises was 4.2% higher than a year earlier; July’s growth was 11.2%. Slower annual growth was not a month-on-month decline in profit. Companies’ profits would depend not only on lower tariffs, but also on selling more goods at profitable prices.
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30 days
What matters now
The US ten-year bond yield reached 5.24%: companies may face higher borrowing costs
Companies borrowing to expand may have to pay higher interest rates. On 28 September, the US ten-year Treasury yield rose from Friday’s 5.17% to 5.24%. The two-year measure increased from 4.81% to 4.92%, and the thirty-year from 5.49% to 5.56%. Yields rose on both shorter- and longer-term bonds. These figures do not establish which particular news item contributed most to the rise.
? Bond yields and basis points: what does the change mean?
A yield relates a bond’s market price to its future payments; these are the US Treasury’s standardised measures for the respective maturities. A rise from 5.17% to 5.24% is 0.07 percentage points, or 7 basis points, not a 7% investment return. When yields rise, prices of existing fixed-rate bonds generally fall.
A company’s borrowing rate is not identical to this measure, but government borrowing costs provide an important reference point. When that reference rises, new loans or bond issues can become more expensive for a company, unless lenders reduce the additional interest they charge for that company’s risk. This matters for property companies, utility companies and data centres financed with borrowing. Existing fixed-rate loans do not automatically become more expensive after a single market session.
The same change affects new bond buyers and existing holders differently. New bond buyers see a higher yield, while the value of an existing longer-maturity portfolio may fall. Higher interest rates may affect a technology company with little debt less than a customer borrowing to build new data centres. The next US labour-market and consumer-price releases will help test whether household spending and business demand are supporting the economy, or prices are still rising too quickly.
The ECB is watching whether costlier energy will push up other prices and wages
For Europe, the issue is not only how much energy has become more expensive, but whether the increase spreads to other prices. On 28 September, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted that there were not yet clear signs that rising energy costs have already led to a lasting increase in wage growth. This is the ECB’s assessment, not a guarantee or a new interest-rate decision. Compensation per employee grew 3.3% year on year in the second quarter, compared with 3.6% in the first; these figures should not be confused with inflation.
? Second-round inflation effects: what is the central bank looking for?
The first effect is the direct increase in energy prices. A second round occurs when higher costs spread more widely into wages and other goods and services prices. An energy-price jump alone does not prove that such a more persistent price-setting process has become established.
Energy prices rose faster in August, but other prices did not all accelerate with them. Annual headline euro-area inflation rose from July’s 2.9% to 3.2%, and energy inflation from 10.3% to 14.3%. Inflation excluding energy and food nevertheless slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%. Faster energy inflation therefore does not mean that all goods and services prices are accelerating equally. The ECB is also assessing whether higher long-term rates will slow the economy and reduce companies’ ability to raise selling prices.
US inventory data show that supplies of crude oil and finished fuels differ. The latest US weekly release was published on 23 September for the week ending 18 September. Commercial crude stocks excluding the strategic reserve were 426.4 million barrels, around 2% above their five-year seasonal average. Petrol stocks were 6% below their own average and distillates 12% below theirs. This compares inventories; it is not today’s oil price or an equivalent change in fuel prices.
? Distillates and seasonal averages: what is being compared?
Distillates include diesel and heating-oil products. Each product’s stocks are compared with its own average for that time of year over five years. More crude in storage does not always mean sufficient finished fuel has reached buyers.
More expensive fuel and electricity can reduce transport and chemical companies’ profits. Households spending more on energy also have less money left for other goods. Higher fuel inventories and slower price increases would help these businesses and their shareholders. New supply disruptions, by contrast, could raise costs and selling prices. The US inventory report on 30 September needs to be read for fuel stocks and refining activity, while European wage and services-price trends remain important.
NVIDIA’s $150 billion authorisation is not a completed share buyback
NVIDIA announced a plan to buy more of its own shares, not new sales results. On 28 September, chip designer NVIDIA announced an additional $150 billion share-repurchase authorisation. After the increase, the company can spend a total of $235 billion on further repurchases under the programme. The company expects to use that balance through the end of its fiscal 2028. This is a plan, not completed purchases, a guaranteed payment on a specific date or newly earned profit.
? Share-repurchase authorisation: what changes for a shareholder?
Authorisation allows a company to buy its own shares, but does not itself spend cash or reduce the share count. If actual repurchases reduce the number of shares, the same total profit is divided among fewer shares. New share issuance and the purchase price also affect the outcome; authorisation is not a promised investment return.
The scale needs careful reading: the additional $150 billion is part of the total $235 billion remaining balance, not another amount to add to it. NVIDIA’s ability to repurchase shares may differ from its customers’ ability to finance data centres. This matters to holders of broad US equity funds as well as individual technology shares. One company’s buyback programme does not prove that artificial-intelligence infrastructure has already paid off for all its customers.
Repurchases could benefit shareholders if the company generates enough cash both to buy shares and to fund worthwhile projects. But it could pay too much for its shares. If repurchases merely offset newly issued shares, the total share count would not fall. Chip suppliers and their customers therefore need separate financial assessments. Later NVIDIA reports will show how much cash was actually spent on repurchases and how the share count changed.
The week’s question: would lower US–China tariffs increase company profits?
What changed since yesterday? The US–China proposal to reduce some import tariffs is still under consideration. But Monday’s rise in bond yields could make new business borrowing more expensive. The ECB discussed whether rising energy costs would push up other prices, while NVIDIA increased the amount authorised for share repurchases. Companies face different needs: some need more buyers, some cheaper loans, and others need to decide how to use cash they have earned.
Lower tariffs would help if they took effect and allowed companies to cut costs or increase profitable sales. But more expensive loans, weaker demand or higher energy costs could offset part of that benefit. The next labour-market and consumption releases will help distinguish these scenarios. No precise equity-index or exchange-rate moves are given here because prices for the full comparison period have not been verified. Dollar movements also affect the value of a euro investor’s US holdings if the currency risk is unhedged.
Higher interest rates do not necessarily worsen every company’s prospects equally. If stronger real growth drives them higher, more sales may offset part of companies’ financing costs. If prices rise without companies selling more, extra sales do not offset the higher costs. The yield table alone cannot distinguish these scenarios. Household spending adjusted for price changes, company orders and the profit retained from sales therefore need to be assessed together, rather than assuming that higher rates are equally bad for every equity.
30 days
What comes next
What comes next: labour demand, consumption and plans put into practice
- US job-openings data on 29 September. August’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is due at 17:00 Lithuanian time. It has not been released at the morning cutoff; the question is whether companies still need as many new workers.
- US prices and consumption on 30 September. August personal spending and its price index, plus the third estimate of second-quarter economic growth, are due at 15:30 Lithuanian time. These are upcoming releases, not known results.
- Will announced decisions be put into practice? The US energy report on 30 September will test fuel inventories. US–China trade needs final terms for applying lower tariffs, while NVIDIA needs later reports of completed repurchases, not just the size of its authorisation.
? Job openings and consumption prices: what are we monitoring?
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey measures vacancies and movements of workers, not simply the number of newly created jobs. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index measures price changes in goods and services consumed. Real consumption expenditure removes the effect of price changes and should not be confused with the price index.
Important. This is general market analysis, not a personal recommendation to buy or sell. Historical data and company results do not guarantee future returns. Forecasts and conditional scenarios may not materialise.
How is the history preserved and updated?
All five periods in this edition share one information date. Week means the latest 7 days, quarter means 90 days, and year means the trailing 12 months. The next dated edition will have a separate URL. This text keeps its date and assessment; later events are not silently inserted into an older edition. Longer periods assess new evidence alongside earlier developments without repeating every headline.
