30 days · Market review
30 days: rates rose, but US consumer spending held up
During the rolling period from 2 September to 1 October, the US and euro-area central banks raised interest rates. End-of-month releases showed resilient US consumer spending and more expensive energy in Europe. This view covers 30 rolling days; September market comparisons are separately measured from 31 August to 30 September.
Period covered: 2026-09-02 – 2026-10-01Information as of 13 min read
The 30 September releases included US spending and revised growth data, preliminary German and French inflation, and China’s factory survey. Long-term US Treasury yields ended the month above their August levels.
The US and euro-area policy rate increases made in September remain in effect. Strong sales can support company profits, but energy and new borrowing costs can absorb part of those profits.
30 days
What happened
The 26 August starting backdrop: growth with cautious consumption
This rolling 30-day period begins on 2 September. US second-quarter growth formed part of its starting backdrop. The second estimate, released on 26 August, showed annualised growth of 1.5%, but on 30 September the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised it to 2.2%. That is 0.6% above the previous quarter, not 2.2% growth in three months. The revision changed the assessment of an earlier period; it did not add new production in September.
US consumption grew only modestly in July. Data revised on 30 September showed real consumer spending, which removes the effect of prices, increasing by 0.1% over July. Higher company revenue therefore did not necessarily mean a substantial increase in the quantity of goods or services purchased.
The 26 August backdrop and September results: technology demand became profit
Technology companies reported rapid revenue and profit growth despite the risk of higher costs. On 26 August, chip designer NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of 96.221 billion US dollars, up 106% year on year. Operating profit under US accounting standards grew even faster, by 124%. These are results for the quarter ended 26 July, although the company calls it the second quarter of fiscal 2027.
Semiconductor and infrastructure software company Broadcom also confirmed revenue growth on 2 September. Its revenue for the quarter ended 2 August reached 29.6 billion dollars, up 86% year on year. Two companies do not represent the whole sector, but their results show that some demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure has already turned into sales. How much the customers buying that equipment will earn remains a separate question.
Early September: the economy grew while energy became more expensive
Euro-area economic growth was accompanied by faster energy-price increases. The preliminary euro-area estimate for August, released on 1 September, showed annual consumer price inflation of 3.3%, compared with 2.9% in July. Energy prices rose 14.3% year on year, while services inflation slowed. Prices were moving unevenly, rather than the entire consumer basket getting more expensive at one uniform pace.
On 7 September, euro-area second-quarter growth was revised to 0.6% quarter on quarter. That was a better estimate of an earlier period, not extra growth that suddenly appeared in September. The US increase of 162,000 jobs in August, announced on 4 September, also showed resilience. June and July gains had been much smaller. These figures did not show the sharp economic weakening that could prompt rapid interest-rate cuts.
The oil problem was delivery as well as price
Unreliable supply complicated the energy story. On 5 and 8 September, US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian tankers. These are statements from a party to the conflict, not an independent measurement of all oil flows. Even so, they were a reminder that June’s diplomatic agreement did not yet mean shipping had been reliably restored.
The US Energy Information Administration’s 9 September forecast projected an average Brent price of about 90 US dollars per barrel in the second half of the year. That was an increase of 8 dollars, or roughly a tenth, from the previous forecast of 82 dollars. Model inputs were finalised on 3 September, so this revision cannot be attributed to later military statements. It is a forecast, not today’s exchange price. For hauliers and energy-importing factories, what matters is whether recovering supply reduces fuel and energy costs.
10 September: Europe chose higher interest rates
The European Central Bank decided to raise all three key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. The deposit facility rate rose from 2.25% to 2.50% on 16 September. The decision has been made, but its effective date is not its announcement date.
In the bank’s forecasts, the energy shock remains an obstacle to returning inflation to its 2% target. That complicates conditions for companies facing higher fuel and borrowing costs at the same time. Banks’ interest income may rise, but weaker customers increase the risk of loan defaults. A central bank rate increase is therefore not equally good news for the entire financial sector.
11 September: annual inflation was unchanged, but monthly price growth accelerated
The US Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose 3.4% year on year in August, the same as in July. The monthly change, adjusted for normal seasonal patterns, nevertheless accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%. These data were already released on 11 September; this is not a future event.
The picture excluding food and energy is also mixed. Annual growth slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%, but monthly growth rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. It is therefore inaccurate to say that all price pressure intensified by the same amount. The central bank will have to consider both the pace in recent months and the broader trend.
How can annual inflation stay unchanged while monthly inflation rises?
The annual change compares the price level with the same month a year earlier. The monthly change compares two adjacent months. A new price increase can replace a similar older month, leaving the annual figure unchanged. The measure excluding food and energy helps show the direction of other prices, but does not capture a household’s whole bill.
? How should we read GDP and price indices?
Gross domestic product measures the value of final goods and services produced in an economy. Real growth removes the effect of prices. US quarterly growth is often reported at an annualised rate, as if the same change continued for four quarters. The Consumer Price Index measures a basket of prices weighted by consumption. Its annual and monthly changes have different comparison bases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index also includes spending made on consumers’ behalf, uses different weights and accounts for changes in the composition of consumption; these two price indices should not be treated as interchangeable.
11 September: the wait for an energy supply recovery grew longer
The International Energy Agency’s 11 September forecast projected a larger fall in oil supply than in demand this year. This is a forecast, not the final annual result.
France: higher bond yields could increase government interest costs
France’s ten-year government bond yield benchmark was 4.48% on 14 September, compared with 4.19% on 1 September. The move over these sessions is 0.29 percentage points; it is not a monthly investment return. The higher cost of new debt can increase the budget’s interest expense over time, but coupons on existing fixed-rate debt do not automatically change.
16–24 September: US bond yields rose again after a brief decline
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The preliminary S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index, covering manufacturing and services activity, reached 58.4 in the release of 23 September, compared with 56.0 in August. Seasonally adjusted initial unemployment benefit claims of 197,000 for the week ending 19 September, released on 24 September, added to the evidence that the economy was not weakening sharply. These are signals from 23–24 September, but neither a survey nor one week of claims is a final measure of an entire quarter’s growth.
? Purchasing Managers’ Index: what does the threshold mean?
The company survey compares activity with the previous month. Above 50 generally indicates expansion and below 50 contraction. A reading of 58.4 does not mean growth of 58.4%; the preliminary measure may be revised.
September’s decisions extended beyond the US and euro area. On 18 September the Bank of Japan set an overnight interest-rate target of 1.25%, effective from 24 September. On 17 September the Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75%. These different paths matter for Japanese bonds and yen-funded investments, as well as British companies’ borrowing costs.
25–28 September: uneven demand and trade relief not yet in force
US August durable-goods orders, reported on 25 September, reached $338.6 billion and were virtually unchanged from revised July. Orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft nevertheless rose 1.6%, while shipments increased 0.6%. These are monthly changes adjusted for seasonality, but not for prices. On the same day, the University of Michigan’s final September consumer sentiment index stood at 48.1, compared with 51.7 in August. Business-equipment demand and households’ assessments were therefore sending different signals.
On 27 September, the White House published US and Chinese product lists proposed for lower import tariffs worth about $30 billion in each direction. The US list of imports from China includes plastic tableware and bedding; China’s list of imports from the US includes beef and dairy products. This publication did not bring tariff reductions into force. On 28 September, China reported that August profit at larger industrial enterprises was 4.2% higher than a year earlier; July’s growth was 11.2%. These are year-on-year comparisons; they do not show whether profit rose or fell from July to August. Companies’ profits would depend not only on lower tariffs, but also on selling more goods at profitable prices.
US spending grew, but household income did not rise after inflation
US household spending supported economic growth in August. On 30 September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that spending increased by 0.6% over the month after removing price changes. However, inflation-adjusted disposable income was unchanged. The increase in spending was therefore not matched by growth in current income. Wages, savings and access to credit will matter for whether households can sustain that pace.
The price figures did not show a fresh decline in annual inflation. In the data revised on 30 September, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was 3.4% higher in August than a year earlier; excluding food and energy, the increase was 3.0%. July’s figures in the same revised series were identical. Comparing July’s earlier published estimate with August’s new figure would confuse a change in historical estimates with a change in prices.
? Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: what does it measure?
The index, known as PCE, measures changes in prices of goods and services bought for consumers, including some spending on their behalf. Excluding food and energy helps separate frequently volatile prices; 3.0% is annual price growth, not a monthly change or growth in the quantity consumed.
The US ten-year yield rose from 4.75% to 5.29% during September
Long-term US borrowing costs increased during September. The ten-year Treasury yield stood at 5.29% on 30 September, compared with 4.75% on 31 August, a rise of 0.54 percentage points. Its increase on 30 September alone was 0.03 percentage points. The whole month’s rise cannot be attributed to yesterday’s consumer-spending release.
? Yields and basis points: how should the change be read?
The US Treasury table gives a standardised annual yield for each maturity. One basis point is 0.01 percentage points, so an increase of 0.54 percentage points equals 54 basis points. This is not an investment return: when yields rise, the price of an existing fixed-rate bond generally falls.
Over the full calendar third quarter, from 30 June to 30 September, the ten-year yield rose from 4.44% to 5.29%. That matters for long-duration bond funds and businesses that need to refinance. September’s policy rate increase forms part of the backdrop, but market yields also reflect inflation expectations, bond supply and the compensation investors require for lending over a longer period.
German energy prices are rising faster, but other prices are not accelerating uniformly
On 30 September, Germany’s statistical office estimated annual September inflation at 3.3%, up from 2.9% in August. Energy inflation accelerated from 10.5% to 14.9%. However, annual price growth excluding food and energy remained at 2.4%, while services inflation slowed from 2.8% to 2.7%. A higher headline rate does not mean that all costs have started rising faster.
France’s preliminary September inflation measured under the common European Union methodology, released the same day, rose from 2.6% to 3.4%. European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel stressed the impact of higher energy prices on other prices and expectations on 30 September. This was a new assessment, not a new interest-rate decision: the 2.50% deposit rate has been in effect since 16 September.
? Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices: why can it differ?
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices allows price growth across European Union countries to be compared under a common methodology. Its coverage and weights can differ from the national index, so France’s 3.4% figure here is not its national-index reading.
Chinese manufacturing recovers, but orders and profits are different measures
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported on 30 September that its manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in September. The production index strengthened to 51.7, but the new-orders reading edged down from 50.6 to 50.5. Companies increased production, yet the survey did not show a broader acceleration in orders.
The raw-material purchase-price index meanwhile rose from 56.6 to 60.8. This is an important qualification to the stronger production reading: producing more does not necessarily mean earning more. Chinese industrial businesses need to cover higher costs, while European equipment and materials suppliers need actual new orders, not just higher output at their customers.
US crude stocks rose, but finished-fuel inventories fell
On 30 September, the US Energy Information Administration released inventories for the week ending 25 September. Commercial crude stocks stood at 427.3 million barrels, 2.6% above the comparable week a year earlier. Petrol inventories, however, were 7.4% lower and distillates, including diesel and heating products, were 14.9% lower. All three percentages use the same year-on-year comparison principle.
This distinction matters for transport and industrial companies: crude in storage is not yet fuel delivered to a driver. If refineries process less crude, fuel availability can remain constrained even as crude inventories rise. That could support refiners’ selling prices while increasing hauliers’ fuel bills; actual prices and company profits still need to be assessed separately.
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30 days
What matters now
A bond buyer and a company refinancing a loan face different opportunities
For a new US bond buyer, a higher yield offers the prospect of more future income. The same change is adverse for the prices of existing long-term fixed-rate bonds. Property businesses, utilities and companies building infrastructure with borrowed funds may face more expensive new financing. Payments on previously agreed fixed-rate loans do not automatically change as a result.
Stronger consumer spending supports revenue at US retailers and service businesses. The risk would increase if household income continued to stagnate and spending had to be cut. In Europe, chemical and transport companies paying more for energy face the opposite pressure: the same sales can leave less profit. October’s labour-market and price releases will help establish which force is gaining strength.
September’s dollar effect for euro investors differed from the full quarter
At the European Central Bank’s reference rates, one euro bought 1.1596 US dollars on 31 August and 1.1355 on 30 September. The euro weakened by 2.08% during September. If an asset’s dollar value had stayed entirely unchanged, its euro value would have risen by about 2.12% from currency conversion alone, before costs and without currency hedging. That is a separate exchange-rate effect, not the return on US shares.
The full-third-quarter currency effect was much smaller: from the 30 June rate of 1.1394 to 30 September, translating an unchanged dollar asset value into euros would have added about 0.34%. September’s result therefore cannot simply be applied to the whole quarter. A stronger dollar helped a euro investor holding unhedged US assets this month, but a later euro recovery could reverse that effect.
30 days
What comes next
- 2 October: the US September employment report. Changes in employee numbers and wages will help assess whether household income can continue to support spending.
- 7 October: US weekly fuel inventories; 14 October: September consumer prices. The question is whether finished-fuel stocks continue to fall and whether higher energy costs affect a broader range of prices.
- 28–29 October: central bank decisions and US growth data. The US central bank decision is scheduled for 28 October; the ECB decision and the first US third-quarter growth estimate for 29 October. These will allow investors to assess actual quarterly growth and the banks’ responses to the new data.
Important. This is general market analysis, not a personal recommendation to buy or sell. Historical data and company results do not guarantee future returns. Forecasts and conditional scenarios may not materialise.
How is the history preserved and updated?
All five periods in this edition share one information date. Week means the latest 7 days, quarter means 90 days, and year means the trailing 12 months. The next dated edition will have a separate URL. This text keeps its date and assessment; later events are not silently inserted into an older edition. Longer periods assess new evidence alongside earlier developments without repeating every headline.
