30 days · Market review
30 days: rates rose, but US consumer spending held up
From 3 September to 2 October, the US and euro-area central banks raised interest rates while new releases continued to show resilient US demand. Towards the end of the period, US market yields fell for one session. August European lending figures and second-quarter Lithuanian housing data showed that, over different periods, both homes and some new loans became more expensive.
Period covered: 2026-09-03 – 2026-10-02Information as of 15 min read
On 1 October, the US manufacturing survey showed stronger new orders and greater input-price pressure, while Treasury yields fell. Euro-area August lending figures and second-quarter house-price data were released on the same day.
The US and euro-area central bank rate increases made in September remain in effect. One session’s move in US bond yields does not automatically reduce households’ or businesses’ existing loan payments.
30 days
What happened
The 26 August starting backdrop: growth with cautious consumption
This rolling 30-day period begins on 3 September. US second-quarter growth formed part of its starting backdrop. The second estimate, released on 26 August, showed annualised growth of 1.5%, but on 30 September the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised it to 2.2%. That is 0.6% above the previous quarter, not 2.2% growth in three months. The revision changed the assessment of an earlier period; it did not add new production in September.
US consumption grew only modestly in July. Data revised on 30 September showed real consumer spending, which removes the effect of prices, increasing by 0.1% over July. Higher company revenue therefore did not necessarily mean a substantial increase in the quantity of goods or services purchased.
The 26 August backdrop and September results: technology demand became profit
Technology companies reported rapid revenue and profit growth despite the risk of higher costs. On 26 August, chip designer NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of 96.221 billion US dollars, up 106% year on year. Operating profit under US accounting standards grew even faster, by 124%. These are results for the quarter ended 26 July, although the company calls it the second quarter of fiscal 2027.
Semiconductor and infrastructure software company Broadcom also confirmed revenue growth on 2 September. Its revenue for the quarter ended 2 August reached 29.6 billion dollars, up 86% year on year. Two companies do not represent the whole sector, but their results show that some demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure has already turned into sales. How much the customers buying that equipment will earn remains a separate question.
Early September: the economy grew while energy became more expensive
Euro-area economic growth was accompanied by faster energy-price increases. The preliminary euro-area estimate for August, released on 1 September, showed annual consumer price inflation of 3.3%, compared with 2.9% in July. That initial estimate put energy inflation at 14.3% year on year, while services inflation slowed. The final estimate released on 17 September revised overall August inflation to 3.2%. Prices were moving unevenly, rather than the entire consumer basket getting more expensive at one uniform pace.
On 7 September, euro-area second-quarter growth was revised to 0.6% quarter on quarter. That was a better estimate of an earlier period, not extra growth that suddenly appeared in September. The US increase of 162,000 jobs in August, announced on 4 September, also showed resilience. June and July gains had been much smaller. These figures did not show the sharp economic weakening that could prompt rapid interest-rate cuts.
The oil problem was delivery as well as price
Unreliable supply complicated the energy story. On 5 and 8 September, US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian tankers. These are statements from a party to the conflict, not an independent measurement of all oil flows. Even so, they were a reminder that June’s diplomatic agreement did not yet mean shipping had been reliably restored.
The US Energy Information Administration’s 9 September forecast projected an average Brent price of about 90 US dollars per barrel in the second half of the year. That was an increase of 8 dollars, or roughly a tenth, from the previous forecast of 82 dollars. Model inputs were finalised on 3 September, so this revision cannot be attributed to later military statements. It is a forecast, not today’s exchange price. For hauliers and energy-importing factories, what matters is whether recovering supply reduces fuel and energy costs.
10 September: Europe chose higher interest rates
The European Central Bank decided to raise all three key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. The deposit facility rate rose from 2.25% to 2.50% on 16 September. The decision has been made, but its effective date is not its announcement date.
In the bank’s forecasts, the energy shock remains an obstacle to returning inflation to its 2% target. That complicates conditions for companies facing higher fuel and borrowing costs at the same time. Banks’ interest income may rise, but weaker customers increase the risk of loan defaults. A central bank rate increase is therefore not equally good news for the entire financial sector.
11 September: annual inflation was unchanged, but monthly price growth accelerated
The US Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose 3.4% year on year in August, the same as in July. The monthly change, adjusted for normal seasonal patterns, nevertheless accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%.
The picture excluding food and energy is also mixed. Annual growth slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%, but monthly growth rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. It is therefore inaccurate to say that all price pressure intensified by the same amount. The central bank will have to consider both the pace in recent months and the broader trend.
How can annual inflation stay unchanged while monthly inflation rises?
The annual change compares the price level with the same month a year earlier. The monthly change compares two adjacent months. A new price increase can replace a similar older month, leaving the annual figure unchanged. The measure excluding food and energy helps show the direction of other prices, but does not capture a household’s whole bill.
? How should we read GDP and price indices?
Gross domestic product measures the value of final goods and services produced in an economy. Real growth removes the effect of prices. US quarterly growth is often reported at an annualised rate, as if the same change continued for four quarters. The Consumer Price Index measures a basket of prices weighted by consumption. Its annual and monthly changes have different comparison bases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index also includes spending made on consumers’ behalf, uses different weights and accounts for changes in the composition of consumption; these two price indices should not be treated as interchangeable.
11 September: the wait for an energy supply recovery grew longer
The International Energy Agency’s 11 September forecast projected a larger fall in oil supply than in demand this year. This is a forecast, not the final annual result.
France: higher bond yields could increase government interest costs
France’s ten-year government bond yield benchmark was 4.48% on 14 September, compared with 4.19% on 1 September. The move over these sessions is 0.29 percentage points; it is not a monthly investment return. The higher cost of new debt can increase the budget’s interest expense over time, but coupons on existing fixed-rate debt do not automatically change.
16–24 September: US bond yields rose again after a brief decline
On 16 September the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00%. An earlier European decision lifting the deposit rate to 2.50% took effect on the same day. The US ten-year yield fell to 4.96% on 21–22 September, but reached 5.18% on 24 September. The fall in US bond yields was therefore short-lived.
The preliminary S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index, covering manufacturing and services activity, reached 58.4 in the release of 23 September, compared with 56.0 in August. Seasonally adjusted initial unemployment benefit claims of 197,000 for the week ending 19 September, released on 24 September, added to the evidence that the economy was not weakening sharply. On 1 October, that week’s claims were revised to 198,000; the newer week ending 26 September recorded 197,000. Claims are not a count of jobs created or a final measure of an entire quarter’s growth.
? Purchasing Managers’ Index: what does the threshold mean?
The company survey compares activity with the previous month. Above 50 generally indicates expansion and below 50 contraction. A reading of 58.4 does not mean growth of 58.4%; the preliminary measure may be revised.
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25–28 September: uneven demand and trade relief not yet in force
US August durable-goods orders, reported on 25 September, reached $338.6 billion and were virtually unchanged from revised July. Orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft nevertheless rose 1.6%, while shipments increased 0.6%. These are monthly changes adjusted for seasonality, but not for prices. On the same day, the University of Michigan’s final September consumer sentiment index stood at 48.1, compared with 51.7 in August. Business-equipment demand and households’ assessments were therefore sending different signals.
On 27 September, the White House published US and Chinese product lists proposed for lower import tariffs worth about $30 billion in each direction. The US list of imports from China includes plastic tableware and bedding; China’s list of imports from the US includes beef and dairy products. This publication did not bring tariff reductions into force. On 28 September, China reported that August profit at larger industrial enterprises was 4.2% higher than a year earlier; July’s growth was 11.2%. These are year-on-year comparisons; they do not show whether profit rose or fell from July to August. Companies’ profits would depend not only on lower tariffs, but also on selling more goods at profitable prices.
30 September: spending remained resilient while energy prices rose
Figures released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 September showed real consumer spending rising 0.6% month on month in August, while real disposable income was unchanged. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE, was 3.4% higher year on year; excluding food and energy, the increase was 3.0%. July’s annual readings were identical in the same revised data series.
Germany’s preliminary national September inflation rate rose from 2.9% to 3.3%, with energy inflation increasing from 10.5% to 14.9%, while the rate excluding food and energy remained at 2.4%. France’s measure under the common European methodology rose from 2.6% to 3.4%. On the same day, China’s manufacturing survey index rose from 49.8 to 50.1, but its new-orders index fell from 50.6 to 50.5 and the raw-material purchase-price index increased from 56.6 to 60.8. The different indices showed growing activity alongside uneven cost increases.
US Energy Information Administration figures released on 30 September put commercial crude stocks at 427.3 million barrels in the week ending 25 September, 2.6% above a year earlier. Petrol inventories were nevertheless 7.4% lower, and distillates, including diesel and heating products, 14.9% lower. A rise in crude stocks therefore did not by itself resolve the question of finished-fuel supply.
30 September: memory-chip maker Micron reported higher revenue
US memory-chip maker Micron reported on 30 September that revenue for its fiscal quarter ended 3 September was $54.229 billion, compared with $11.315 billion a year earlier. This year’s quarter contained 14 weeks against 13 in the previous year, so the periods are not identical in length. The result added to the record of rising technology-supplier revenue. However, the value of the company’s shares depends on more than revenue already earned: it also matters how much future growth investors already expect.
US factory orders expanded, but input prices rose too
The Institute for Supply Management’s US manufacturing survey, released on 1 October, showed continued sector expansion in September. Its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, was 54.5, compared with 54.6 in August. The broad growth signal was therefore almost unchanged.
A more important contrast emerged within the survey. The new-orders index rose from 53.7 to 55.3, while the prices-paid index increased from 71.1 to 77.9. Stronger orders can support manufacturers’ sales, but more expensive materials can reduce profit if a company cannot raise selling prices or cut other costs.
US Treasury data show that the ten-year yield fell from 5.29% to 5.24% on 1 October. The two-year yield declined from 4.88% to 4.78%, and the thirty-year yield from 5.64% to 5.61%. The shorter maturity had the larger fall, but one day’s move does not establish where interest rates will be a month later.
? Yields and basis points: how should the change be read?
The US Treasury measure is a standardised annual government-bond yield for a given maturity, calculated from market quotations. One basis point is 0.01 percentage points. This is not the coupon or daily return; falling yields generally support existing fixed-rate bond prices.
The longer comparison helps put one session in perspective. The ten-year yield at the end of September was still well above its end-August level. The cost of new loans and newly issued corporate bonds depends on more than government yields: lenders also assess the individual company’s ability to repay. A lower US government benchmark therefore does not mean the same reduction in financing costs for every business.
France borrowed almost €12 billion, but its bonds carry different interest costs
France’s debt agency allocated €11.999 billion of long-term bonds at the initial auction on 1 October, with settlement scheduled for 5 October. The largest share, €6.271 billion, was the issue maturing on 25 November 2036. Its average auction yield was 4.93%, although the annual coupon is 3.70%: buyers purchased the bond below its face value.
? Coupon and yield: why are they different?
The coupon is calculated from a bond’s face value, whereas the yield also takes account of its purchase price and repayment at maturity. Buying below face value can produce a yield above the coupon if payments are made and the bond is held to maturity.
This is the auction result for a particular issue, not the daily move in the entire French ten-year government-bond market. The 2027 funding plan published on 29 September envisaged greater borrowing needs, partly to redeem old bonds. Investors must absorb the additional bond supply, making the interest compensation they require important to the state. For holders of French bonds this poses a price risk; for new buyers it offers an opportunity to weigh the income against the state’s finances.
Euro-area mortgages and consumer credit became more expensive in August
On 1 October, the European Central Bank published August statistics on new bank lending. The euro-area mortgage rate indicator rose by 0.06 percentage points to 3.60%, while the consumer credit rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 7.92%. The corporate borrowing cost indicator was almost unchanged at 3.77%. These are euro-area averages, not an offer from an individual Lithuanian bank; August figures do not yet show the effect of the ECB’s September rate increase.
For a home buyer, a higher interest rate means a larger payment on an otherwise identical new loan, with its size and term unchanged. More expensive consumer credit reduces households’ ability to finance spending through borrowing. That can mean more cautious customers for retailers and higher income from new lending for banks, alongside a greater risk that some borrowers struggle with repayments.
? New lending rates: whose borrowing costs do they describe?
These banking statistics summarise new agreements and their weights across the euro area, rather than interest rates on all outstanding loans. An individual offer depends on the country, loan terms and borrower; changes in the mix of agreements can also affect the monthly average.
Lithuanian house prices rose much faster than the euro-area average
On 1 October, Eurostat reported that Lithuanian house prices were 14.3% higher year on year in the second quarter and 5.0% above the first quarter. The corresponding euro-area changes were 4.0% and 1.1%. These are transaction-price data for April–June, not October asking prices.
Someone buying a home in Lithuania needs to consider both its price and the future mortgage payment. However, second-quarter house-price growth cannot be explained by euro-area lending rates observed later, in August. For an owner, a price increase is not yet a net gain: loan interest, maintenance, taxes and purchase and sale expenses affect the result.
? House Price Index: what does it cover?
The index measures transaction-price changes in new and existing residential properties purchased by households; neither inflation nor seasonal effects are removed here. It is not a rental yield or a return on all types of property. Annual and quarterly changes use different comparison periods.
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30 days
What matters now
Debt maturities and portfolio concentration matter more than one daily figure
Falling yields generally help holders of long-term fixed-rate bonds, while reducing the income offered on newly purchased bonds. For a highly indebted property business or utility, the important question is when an old loan must be repaid and replaced. Payments on an existing fixed-rate loan do not automatically change when market yields move.
Stronger orders give industrial companies an opportunity to increase sales. Greater risk falls on those unable to pass higher material costs on to customers. For bank and consumer-company shares, meanwhile, an important question is whether households can afford higher repayments without cutting other spending. New wage, loan-quality and company-profit figures will help test those conditions.
The Lithuanian house-price comparison is particularly relevant to an investor whose assets are concentrated in one property or country. A rising property value can increase total wealth, but it does not provide the same ready access to cash as easily sold investments. Comparing housing with shares or bonds requires matching periods and currencies and including all income and costs, rather than considering the price index alone.
The currency effect for euro investors
The latest ECB reference rate published before the cutoff was 1.1298 US dollars per euro on 1 October, compared with 1.1355 on 30 September. A weaker euro increases the euro value of an unchanged dollar investment, but its actual result also depends on the investment’s own price and any currency hedging.
At ECB reference rates, one euro bought 1.1596 US dollars on 31 August and 1.1355 on 30 September. If an asset’s dollar value had stayed unchanged, translating it into euros would have added about 2.12% during September, before costs and without currency hedging. The corresponding full-third-quarter currency effect, starting from the 30 June rate of 1.1394, would be about 0.34%. These are historical calendar-period comparisons, not share returns or the exchange rate on 2 October.
30 days
What comes next
- 2 October: the US September employment report. It was still due at the edition’s data cutoff. Employee numbers and wages will help assess whether household income can support spending.
- 7 October: US weekly fuel inventories; 14 October: consumer prices. These releases will show whether constrained fuel supply continues to affect costs and whether price pressures are spreading.
- 28–29 October: central bank decisions and US growth data. The US decision is scheduled for 28 October; the ECB decision and first US third-quarter growth estimate for 29 October. They will help test whether demand remained resilient and whether the banks are changing their interest-rate direction.
Important. This is general market analysis, not a personal recommendation to buy or sell. Historical data and company results do not guarantee future returns. Forecasts and conditional scenarios may not materialise.
How is the history preserved and updated?
All five periods in this edition share one information date. Week means the latest 7 days, quarter means 90 days, and year means the trailing 12 months. The next dated edition will have a separate URL. This text keeps its date and assessment; later events are not silently inserted into an older edition. Longer periods assess new evidence alongside earlier developments without repeating every headline.
