30 days · Market review
30 days: costlier energy meets weakening demand
Over 30 days, September’s central-bank rate increases were followed by weaker US labour-market and European demand data. The EIA’s new oil price forecast on 6 October raised the outlook for future costs. Company profits depend on whether customers accept higher prices or businesses have to absorb part of the energy increase themselves.
Period covered: 2026-09-08 – 2026-10-07Information as of 18 min read
The new EIA outlook projects more expensive oil at year-end, while the euro area retail release shows only a small rebound from July’s decline. US bond yields fell, reversing the direction of the previous session.
Oil supply depends on more than announced plans: reserves and Middle Eastern exports must actually reach buyers. Company profits also depend on whether higher costs can be passed on to customers.
30 days
What happened
The 26 August starting backdrop: growth with cautious consumption
This rolling 30-day period begins on 8 September. US second-quarter growth formed part of its starting backdrop. The second estimate, released on 26 August, showed annualised growth of 1.5%, but on 30 September the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised it to 2.2%. That is 0.6% above the previous quarter, not 2.2% growth in three months. The revision changed the assessment of an earlier period; it did not add new production in September.
US consumption grew only modestly in July. Data revised on 30 September showed real consumer spending, which removes the effect of prices, increasing by 0.1% in July compared with June. Higher company revenue therefore did not necessarily mean a substantial increase in the quantity of goods or services purchased.
The 26 August backdrop and September results: technology demand became profit
Technology companies reported rapid revenue and profit growth despite the risk of higher costs. On 26 August, chip designer NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of 96.221 billion US dollars, up 106% year on year. Operating profit under US accounting standards grew even faster, by 124%. These are results for the quarter ended 26 July, although the company calls it the second quarter of fiscal 2027.
Semiconductor and infrastructure software company Broadcom also confirmed revenue growth on 2 September. Its revenue for the quarter ended 2 August reached 29.6 billion dollars, up 86% year on year. Two companies do not represent the whole sector, but their results show that some demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure has already turned into sales. How much the customers buying that equipment will earn remains a separate question.
Early September: the economy grew while energy became more expensive
Euro-area economic growth was accompanied by faster energy-price increases. The preliminary euro-area estimate for August, released on 1 September, showed annual consumer price inflation of 3.3%, compared with 2.9% in July. That initial estimate put energy inflation at 14.3% year on year, while services inflation slowed. The final estimate released on 17 September revised overall August inflation to 3.2%. Prices were moving unevenly, rather than the entire consumer basket getting more expensive at one uniform pace.
On 7 September, euro-area second-quarter growth was revised to 0.6% quarter on quarter. That was a better estimate of an earlier period, not extra growth that suddenly appeared in September. The initial US estimate for August, released on 4 September, showed 162,000 additional jobs. On 2 October, that gain was revised to 133,000, while July was revised to a loss of 10,000 jobs. The latest data therefore show a weaker summer labour market than the early-September release suggested.
The oil problem was delivery as well as price
Unreliable supply complicated the energy story. On 5 and 8 September, US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian tankers. These are statements from a party to the conflict, not an independent measurement of all oil flows. Even so, they were a reminder that June’s diplomatic agreement did not yet mean shipping had been reliably restored.
The US Energy Information Administration’s 9 September forecast projected an average Brent price of about 90 US dollars per barrel in the second half of the year. That was an increase of 8 dollars, or roughly a tenth, from the previous forecast of 82 dollars. Model inputs were finalised on 3 September, so this revision cannot be attributed to later military statements. It is a forecast, not today’s exchange price. For hauliers and energy-importing factories, what matters is whether recovering supply reduces fuel and energy costs.
10 September: Europe chose higher interest rates
The European Central Bank decided to raise all three key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. The deposit facility rate rose from 2.25% to 2.50% on 16 September. The decision has been made, but its effective date is not its announcement date.
In the bank’s forecasts, the energy shock remains an obstacle to returning inflation to its 2% target. That complicates conditions for companies facing higher fuel and borrowing costs at the same time. Banks’ interest income may rise, but weaker customers increase the risk of loan defaults. A central bank rate increase is therefore not equally good news for the entire financial sector.
11 September: annual inflation was unchanged, but monthly price growth accelerated
The US Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose 3.4% year on year in August, the same as in July. The monthly change, adjusted for normal seasonal patterns, nevertheless accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%.
The picture excluding food and energy is also mixed. Annual growth slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%, but monthly growth rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. It is therefore inaccurate to say that all price pressure intensified by the same amount. The central bank will have to consider both the pace in recent months and the broader trend.
How can annual inflation stay unchanged while monthly inflation rises?
The annual change compares the price level with the same month a year earlier. The monthly change compares two adjacent months. A new price increase can replace a similar older month, leaving the annual figure unchanged. The measure excluding food and energy helps show the direction of other prices, but does not capture a household’s whole bill.
? How should we read GDP and price indices?
Gross domestic product measures the value of final goods and services produced in an economy. Real growth removes the effect of prices. US quarterly growth is often reported at an annualised rate, as if the same change continued for four quarters. The Consumer Price Index measures a basket of prices weighted by consumption. Its annual and monthly changes have different comparison bases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index also includes spending made on consumers’ behalf, uses different weights and accounts for changes in the composition of consumption; these two price indices should not be treated as interchangeable.
11 September: the wait for an energy supply recovery grew longer
The International Energy Agency’s 11 September forecast projected a larger fall in oil supply than in demand this year. This is a forecast, not the final annual result.
France: higher bond yields could increase government interest costs
France’s ten-year government bond yield benchmark was 4.48% on 14 September, compared with 4.19% on 1 September. The move over these sessions is 0.29 percentage points; it is not a monthly investment return. The higher cost of new debt can increase the budget’s interest expense over time, but coupons on existing fixed-rate debt do not automatically change.
16–24 September: US bond yields rose again after a brief decline
On 16 September the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00%. An earlier European decision lifting the deposit rate to 2.50% took effect on the same day. The US ten-year yield fell to 4.96% on 21–22 September, but reached 5.18% on 24 September. The fall in US bond yields was therefore short-lived.
The preliminary S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index, covering manufacturing and services activity, reached 58.4 in the release of 23 September, compared with 56.0 in August. Seasonally adjusted initial unemployment benefit claims of 197,000 for the week ending 19 September, released on 24 September, at that time added to the evidence that the economy was not weakening sharply. On 1 October, that week’s claims were revised to 198,000; the newer week ending 26 September recorded 197,000. Claims are not a count of jobs created or a final measure of an entire quarter’s growth.
? Purchasing Managers’ Index: what does the threshold mean?
The company survey compares activity with the previous month. Above 50 generally indicates expansion and below 50 contraction. A reading of 58.4 does not mean growth of 58.4%; the preliminary measure may be revised.
September’s decisions extended beyond the US and euro area. On 18 September the Bank of Japan set an overnight interest-rate target of 1.25%, effective from 24 September. On 17 September the Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75%. These different paths matter for Japanese bonds and yen-funded investments, as well as British companies’ borrowing costs.
25–28 September: uneven demand and trade relief not yet in force
US August durable-goods orders, reported on 25 September, reached $338.6 billion and were virtually unchanged from revised July. Orders for non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft nevertheless rose 1.6%, while shipments increased 0.6%. These are monthly changes adjusted for seasonality, but not for prices. On the same day, the University of Michigan’s final September consumer sentiment index stood at 48.1, compared with 51.7 in August. Business-equipment demand and households’ assessments were therefore sending different signals.
For your investments
Let’s discuss your portfolio
FINANCIAL FREEDOM01 / 04Investment results since 1999
Are you beating
global equities?
at the end of the period
Jan 1999–Jun 2026 · EUR · Cumulative return, %
Linear scale · * MSCI World → MSCI ACWI.
Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
FINANCIAL FREEDOM02 / 04Historical comparison
How far did it fall?
How long to recover?
Decline from the previous high
Longest recovery to the previous high
Jan 1999–Jun 2026 · EUR · Monthly data
* MSCI World → MSCI ACWI.
Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
FINANCIAL FREEDOM03 / 04Personal investment consultation
Already investing?
Let’s review your portfolio.
Yet to start
investing?
Let’s build your first
investment plan.
FINANCIAL FREEDOM04 / 04
Personal investment
consultation
Martynas
Juška
Investment manager
Managing a portfolio
of more than€100 million
30 September: spending remained resilient while energy prices rose
Figures released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 September showed real consumer spending rising 0.6% month on month in August, while real disposable income was unchanged. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE, was 3.4% higher year on year; excluding food and energy, the increase was 3.0%. July’s annual readings were identical in the same revised data series.
Germany’s preliminary national September inflation rate rose from 2.9% to 3.3%, with energy inflation increasing from 10.5% to 14.9%, while the rate excluding food and energy remained at 2.4%. France’s measure under the common European methodology rose from 2.6% to 3.4%. On the same day, China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose from 49.8 to 50.1, but its new-orders index fell from 50.6 to 50.5 and the raw-material purchase-price index increased from 56.6 to 60.8. The different indices showed growing activity alongside uneven cost increases.
US Energy Information Administration figures released on 30 September put commercial crude stocks at 427.3 million barrels in the week ending 25 September, 2.6% above a year earlier. Petrol inventories were nevertheless 7.4% lower, and distillates, including diesel and heating products, 14.9% lower. A rise in crude stocks therefore did not by itself resolve the question of finished-fuel supply.
30 September: memory-chip maker Micron reported higher revenue
US memory-chip maker Micron reported on 30 September that revenue for its fiscal quarter ended 3 September was $54.229 billion, compared with $11.315 billion a year earlier. This year’s quarter contained 14 weeks against 13 in the previous year, so the periods are not identical in length. The result added to the record of rising technology-supplier revenue. However, the value of the company’s shares depends on more than revenue already earned: it also matters how much future growth investors already expect.
1 October: orders held up while new borrowing cost more
The Institute for Supply Management’s September manufacturing survey, released on 1 October, put its Purchasing Managers’ Index at 54.5. Activity was still expanding, but the prices-paid index increased from 71.1 to 77.9. For a manufacturer, this means an opportunity to sell more without necessarily earning more if higher material costs cannot be passed on to customers.
On the same day, the European Central Bank reported that the euro-area new mortgage rate indicator rose to 3.60% in August, consumer credit rates to 7.92%, while the corporate borrowing cost indicator was almost unchanged at 3.77%. These are averages for new agreements, not changes in payments on existing Lithuanian loans. August statistics do not yet show the effects of the subsequent September rate increase.
Eurostat reported on 1 October that Lithuanian house transaction prices were 14.3% higher year on year in the second quarter, against 4.0% in the euro area. This April–June comparison describes prices, not rental income or net investment returns. A home buyer needs to consider both the purchase price and future mortgage payment, but later euro-area lending rates cannot be presented as the cause of earlier Lithuanian price growth.
2–4 October: US jobs growth slowed while energy risks persisted
On 2 October, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, following a revised increase of 133,000 in August. The combined July and August result was revised down by 60,000. The weakness was not confined to the latest month: the earlier path of jobs growth was also lower than previously reported.
The September unemployment rate was 4.2%. Slower jobs growth can limit growth in household income and discretionary spending. These figures do not by themselves establish an economy-wide downturn, however.
? Unemployment rate: what is the denominator?
It is the share of the labour force who are not employed, are actively looking for work and are available to work, rather than a share of the whole population. Unemployment and payroll figures come from different surveys, so their monthly movements need not match.
Also on 2 October, Eurostat’s flash estimate showed euro area annual consumer inflation rising from 3.2% to 3.8% in September. These are prices paid by consumers, not the producer selling prices discussed below. On 4 October, seven countries in the OPEC+ group of oil producers retained September production targets for November; these are agreed volumes, not confirmed actual oil supply.
5–6 October releases: higher costs and uneven demand
On 5 October, the Nasdaq Composite share-price index rose 1.05% from its 2 October close, measured in US dollars. The US 10-year Treasury yield meanwhile increased from 5.28% to 5.31%. These are different market measures: rising share prices do not establish that companies can borrow more cheaply.
On 5 October, the US Institute for Supply Management’s September Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM Services PMI) fell from 55.4 to 54.9, while its prices index increased from 72.6 to 74.0. Activity expanded more slowly but cost pressures became more widespread.
? Services and prices indices: what do they measure?
The services survey index gives equal weight to activity, new orders, employment and delivery times. A reading above 50 indicates prevailing expansion compared with the previous month. The separate prices index measures the breadth of price increases: 74 points does not mean 74% inflation.
On 6 October, Destatis reported that German manufacturing orders fell 10.6% in August from July, but only 0.1% excluding large contracts. The category covering ships, aircraft, trains and military vehicles had received unusually large orders in July. Even so, June–August orders excluding large contracts were 2.6% below the preceding three months, leaving regular demand weak.
? Manufacturing orders: how do they differ from revenue?
These are new orders adjusted for prices, seasonal effects and the calendar; August figures are preliminary. An order is not yet a finished product or collected revenue. The overall series and the population excluding large contracts are not additive components of the decline.
On 5 October, Eurostat reported that euro area industrial producer prices rose 1.9% in August from the previous month, with energy up 5.6% and industry excluding energy up 0.2%.
? Producer prices: what do they not show?
The Industrial Producer Price Index measures domestic selling prices, not a company’s entire input-cost basket or consumer inflation. August is compared with July; the energy group’s 5.6% rise is not its percentage-point contribution to the overall index.
Also on 5 October, ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane explained that costlier energy leaves households less money for other goods, while higher long-term interest rates constrain consumption and investment. This was his assessment, not a new interest-rate decision.
The oil forecast rose, but the new reserve plan is not yet included
On 6 October, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for the average Brent oil price in the fourth quarter of 2026 from $91 to $105 a barrel. That is an increase of about 15.4% in the forecast for the same period. The agency expects oil supply from the Middle East to increase, but assumes that constraints will not disappear during the quarter.
Why does more supply not necessarily mean fuel will become cheaper quickly? In the EIA’s assessment, oil inventories are still falling and tight diesel supplies encourage refiners to seek more crude. While transport routes remain constrained, individual additional cargoes may only reduce the shortfall rather than immediately restore normal market conditions.
However, the inputs for the new forecast were finalised on 1 October. It therefore does not include the additional effect of the Group of Seven (G7) plan announced on 2 October: member countries committed to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of oil and petroleum-product reserves over four months. This is planned supply, not confirmation that the entire volume has already reached the market. The actual pace of deliveries could change the supply–demand balance projected by the EIA.
? Brent forecast: what is being compared?
Brent is an important international oil benchmark; the comparison is between two forecast releases for the same October–December average price, not daily prices. The percentage change is calculated from the earlier $91 figure using the EIA’s rounded values. The agency’s forecast is neither a current transaction price nor a guaranteed future outcome.
The US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.27%
On 6 October, the annual yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell from 5.31% to 5.27%. The two-year yield declined from 4.84% to 4.79%, while the 30-year yield moved from 5.66% to 5.64%. Investors buying US government bonds in the market therefore faced slightly lower yields than on Monday.
Friday provides a useful sense of scale: the 10-year yield was 5.28% on 2 October, almost the same as Tuesday’s reading. This was a small fluctuation, not sufficient evidence that a lasting decline in borrowing costs had begun.
? Bond yield: what does it show?
The US Treasury derives these indicative annual rates from market prices for each remaining maturity. Four basis points equal 0.04 percentage points; this is neither a bond fund’s return nor a reduction in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate.
Euro area purchases recovered only slightly after July’s decline
On 6 October, Eurostat reported that euro area retail trade volume rose 0.1% in August from July, when it had fallen 0.6%. The rebound did not offset the previous month’s loss. This measure of actual goods sales volumes adds to the earlier signs of weakness in European industry.
The headline masks different trends: non-food products excluding automotive fuel rose 0.5%, while automotive fuel sales in specialised stores fell 1.9%. Changes in energy prices alone cannot explain all consumption. Purchases of some goods increased while volumes of others declined, so one conclusion would not fit every retailer.
? Retail trade volume: how does it differ from revenue?
The measure tracks sales after removing the effect of price changes, and this monthly comparison is seasonally and calendar adjusted. It does not measure company profits or cover every service bought by households. Higher prices can increase cash revenue even when fewer goods are sold.
Professional portfolio management
A plan for your portfolio. No rush.
Let’s discuss your goals, risk tolerance and time horizon. Find out how your portfolio would be built and managed.
The first conversation is free, with no obligation.
30 days
What matters now
Transport costs and oil producers’ revenue can move in opposite directions
For airline and road-haulage shares, the question is how much fuel costs will reduce profits and how much can be passed on to passengers or freight customers. Higher realised prices can support oil producers’ revenue if they can extract and deliver their output. Hedging contracts and sales volumes determine how quickly oil price changes feed through to each company’s results.
Consumer businesses need buyers, not just higher prices
For non-food retailers, rising sales volumes offer more scope to cover fixed store and logistics costs. Fuel retailers may offset lower volumes with higher cash sales, but profits depend on the difference between purchase and selling prices. European consumer-goods manufacturers still face the risk that rising essential household expenses will limit other purchases. The small overall recovery does not yet provide a broad foundation for sales growth across the sector.
A stronger euro helps importers but reduces the euro value of dollar assets
The European Central Bank reference rate was $1.1269 per euro on 6 October, compared with $1.1204 on 5 October. A stronger euro cushions the cost of dollar-priced oil for euro area importers. However, the currency move reduces the euro value of an investor’s unhedged dollar assets if their dollar price is unchanged. A rise in a US bond’s price can therefore differ from the change in its value in euros.
? ECB reference rate: how should it be read?
The figure shows the number of US dollars per euro; an increase means a stronger euro. It is an informational daily reference rate, not the price of a particular transaction. Its fixing time differs from the US market close, so these rates alone cannot precisely convert that session’s equity return.
Bondholders and future borrowers face different effects. When market yields decline, the prices of existing fixed-rate bonds generally rise; longer-maturity US bonds can respond more strongly. Shares in heavily indebted property companies have a different potential benefit: lower refinancing costs. However, a company’s borrowing rate also depends on its credit risk. A four-basis-point daily move does not alter an existing loan agreement. If inflation expectations or the assessment of the borrower’s risk deteriorate, that relief could disappear.
30 days
What comes next
7 October, 09:00 Lithuania time. Germany’s statistical office Destatis is scheduled to release August production figures. Will the volume of goods already produced confirm the weak orders figures, or did earlier contracts keep factories busy?
7 October, 17:30 Lithuania time. The US Energy Information Administration is scheduled to publish its weekly petroleum report for the week ending 2 October. Will US crude oil and petroleum-product inventories point to growing shortages or stabilising conditions? This measures US inventories, not global stocks.
At 21:00 Lithuania time on 7 October, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the minutes of its 15–16 September meeting. The key question is how participants assessed inflation and the risk of slower economic activity; the minutes describe an earlier meeting, not a new decision based on October’s news.
8 October. The European Central Bank is scheduled to publish the account of its 9–10 September monetary policy meeting. It will help explain how the council assessed energy inflation and weaker demand, but will not be a new interest-rate decision.
At 11:30 Lithuania time on 8 October, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook. Will his assessment of US inflation and economic growth differ from the conditions discussed at the September meeting?
Important. This is general market analysis, not a personal recommendation to buy or sell. Historical data and company results do not guarantee future returns. Forecasts and conditional scenarios may not materialise.
How is the history preserved and updated?
All five periods in this edition share one information date. Week means the latest 7 days, quarter means 90 days, and year means the trailing 12 months. The next dated edition will have a separate URL. This text keeps its date and assessment; later events are not silently inserted into an older edition. Longer periods assess new evidence alongside earlier developments without repeating every headline.
