30 days · Market review
30 days: from technology profit to synchronised rate pressure
Over 30 days, energy and financing costs became more important again. Final euro-area inflation for August reached 3.2% and Lithuania 5.6%. US and European central banks raised policy rates this month even as US bond yields fell yesterday. Revenue is a genuine offset, but investors still need to see how much becomes profit.
Period covered: 2026-08-23 – 2026-09-21Information as of 7 min read
Since the previous information cutoff, the most important confirmed change came on 18 September: the Bank of Japan voted 7–2 to raise its overnight-rate guideline to about 1.25%, effective 24 September. Friday US Treasury estimates ended the week at 4.76% for two years and 5.01% for ten, narrowing the spread to 0.25 percentage points. By 07:00 on 21 September, China had supplied CNY165 billion of seven-day liquidity at 1.40%, while Sunday's lending benchmarks remained 3.00% and 3.50%.
The longer-horizon conclusion is unchanged: the key question is not one central-bank headline but whether revenue growth leaves more profit after energy, imported inputs and debt costs. China's short liquidity operation is not proof of a consumer recovery. One yield-curve observation does not guarantee the direction of the economy, and inflation of 3.2% in the euro area and 5.6% in Lithuania does not mean every item rose equally.
30 days
What happened
Late August: the economy grew, but consumers chose more cautiously
At the start of this month-long period, there was no basis for calling the whole economy weak. The second estimate of US second-quarter gross domestic product, released on 26 August, showed annualised growth of 1.5%. That is about 0.4% above the previous quarter, not 1.5% growth in three months. Private domestic demand grew faster than the headline measure, so a single figure did not describe conditions for every business.
Consumption data also showed that more dollars spent do not necessarily mean more goods bought. July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, released on 26 August, showed annual price growth of 3.7%. Real consumption expenditure, which removes the effect of prices, increased by less than 0.1% over the month. This distinction is worth remembering when reading companies’ reports of rising revenue.
Technology suppliers showed earned profits, not promises
Technology results provided the strongest counterweight to cost concerns. On 26 August, chip designer NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of 96.221 billion US dollars, up 106% year on year. Operating profit under US accounting standards grew even faster, by 124%. These are results for the quarter ended 26 July, although the company calls it the second quarter of fiscal 2027.
Semiconductor and infrastructure software company Broadcom also confirmed revenue growth on 2 September. Its quarterly revenue reached 29.6 billion dollars, up 86% year on year. Two companies do not represent the whole sector, but their results show that some demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure has already turned into sales. How much the customers buying that equipment will earn remains a separate question.
Early September: growth and more expensive energy appeared in the same picture
European statistics did not allow a simple choice between good growth and bad inflation. The preliminary euro-area estimate for August, released on 1 September, showed annual consumer price inflation of 3.3%, compared with 2.9% in July. Energy prices rose 14.3% year on year, while services inflation slowed. Prices were moving unevenly, rather than the entire consumer basket getting more expensive at one uniform pace.
On 7 September, euro-area second-quarter growth was revised to 0.6% quarter on quarter. That was a better estimate of an earlier period, not extra growth that suddenly appeared in September. The US increase of 162,000 jobs in August, announced on 4 September, also showed resilience. June and July gains had been much smaller. Businesses still had customers, but that did not make it easier to promise rapid interest rate cuts.
The oil problem was delivery as well as price
Unreliable supply complicated the energy story. On 5 and 8 September, US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian tankers. These are statements from a party to the conflict, not an independent measurement of all oil flows. Even so, they were a reminder that June’s diplomatic agreement did not yet mean shipping had been reliably restored.
The US Energy Information Administration’s 9 September forecast projected an average Brent price of about 90 US dollars per barrel in the second half of the year. That was an increase of 8 dollars, or roughly a tenth, from the previous forecast of 82 dollars. Model inputs were finalised on 3 September, so this revision cannot be attributed to later military statements. It is a forecast, not today’s exchange price. For hauliers and energy-importing industry, what matters is whether actual improvements in supply bring lower bills.
10 September: Europe chose higher interest rates
The European Central Bank decided to raise all three key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. The deposit facility rate rose from 2.25% to 2.50% on 16 September. The decision has been made, but its effective date is not its announcement date.
In the bank’s forecasts, the energy shock remains an obstacle to returning inflation to its 2% target. That complicates conditions for companies facing higher fuel and borrowing costs at the same time. Banks’ interest income may rise, but weaker customers increase the risk of loan defaults. A central bank rate increase is therefore not equally good news for the entire financial sector.
11 September: annual inflation did not rise, but the monthly message was not reassuring
The US Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose 3.4% year on year in August, the same as in July. The monthly change, adjusted for normal seasonal patterns, nevertheless accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%. These data were already released on 11 September; this is not a future event.
The picture excluding food and energy is also mixed. Annual growth slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%, but monthly growth rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. It is therefore inaccurate to say that all price pressure intensified by the same amount. The central bank will have to consider both the pace in recent months and the broader trend.
How can annual inflation stay unchanged while monthly inflation rises?
The annual change compares the price level with the same month a year earlier. The monthly change compares two adjacent months. A new price increase can replace a similar older month, leaving the annual figure unchanged. The measure excluding food and energy helps show the direction of other prices, but does not capture a household’s whole bill.
? How should we read GDP and price indices?
Gross domestic product measures the value of final goods and services produced in an economy. Real growth removes the effect of prices. US quarterly growth is often reported at an annualised rate, as if the same change continued for four quarters. The Consumer Price Index measures a basket of prices weighted by consumption. Its annual and monthly changes have different comparison bases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index also includes spending made on consumers’ behalf, uses different weights and accounts for changes in the composition of consumption; these two price indices should not be treated as interchangeable.
11 September: the wait for an energy supply recovery grew longer
The International Energy Agency’s 11 September forecast projected a larger fall in oil supply than in demand this year. This is a forecast, not the final annual result.
France’s example: money is available, but it costs more
France’s ten-year government bond yield benchmark was 4.48% on 14 September, compared with 4.19% on 1 September. The move over these sessions is 0.29 percentage points; it is not a monthly investment return. The higher cost of new debt can increase the budget’s interest expense over time, but coupons on existing fixed-rate debt do not automatically change.
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30 days
What matters now
The priority now is to compare different financing channels
The US, Japan and the euro area raised rates during September, the Bank of England held, and China supplied short liquidity without changing its lending benchmarks. There is no single global interest-rate number. A highly indebted company needs to know when debt is refinanced and in which currency. A bank watches both lending margin and customer credit quality. A long-duration bond is sensitive to market yields, while an exporter also depends on demand and the exchange rate.
The US two-year yield rose more than the ten-year yield over the week, narrowing the spread to 0.25 points. That focuses attention on near-term refinancing costs, but one curve move is not an economic verdict. On prices, energy and services remained the largest contributors to euro-area inflation. Equity investors therefore need to test pricing power, bond investors need maturity and credit quality, and Lithuanian households face a local 5.6% rate above the 3.2% euro-area average.
? Yield: what does it measure?
Yield is the market-implied return to a bond’s maturity based on its current price and cash payments. It is not the same as a central-bank rate or a guaranteed investor return if the bond is sold before maturity.
30 days
What comes next
What to watch next
The next checks are implementation of Japan’s new rate from 24 September, the broader US employment report on 2 October and the next euro-area inflation estimate. In China, the test is whether short liquidity and unchanged lending benchmarks appear in consumption and real orders. Easing price pressure alongside resilient profit would weaken today’s financing-risk thesis. Further increases in import, energy and borrowing costs without matching revenue would reinforce it.
Important. This is general market analysis, not a personal recommendation to buy or sell. Historical data and company results do not guarantee future returns. Forecasts and conditional scenarios may not materialise.
How is the history preserved and updated?
All five periods in this edition share one information date. Week means the latest 7 days, quarter means 90 days, and year means the trailing 12 months. The next dated edition will have a separate URL. This text keeps its date and assessment; later events are not silently inserted into an older edition. Longer periods assess new evidence alongside earlier developments without repeating every headline.
