30 days · Market review
30 days: revenue is growing, but costs offer no relief
Over 30 days, the distinction between business growth and an easy investment environment became clearer. Technology demand and US spending supported revenue. Energy disruption and rate increases raised costs at the same time. The latest rise in long US yields shows that the cost story from early September is not over.
Period covered: 2026-08-27 – 2026-09-25Information as of 11 min read
Since the previous edition, the US ten-year yield rose from 4.96% on 22 September to 5.18% on 24 September. The business survey released on 23 September showed faster US expansion, while benefit claims on 24 September did not show a sudden surge in redundancies. New energy and OECD evidence shows that resilient demand, thin fuel stocks and slower European growth can coexist.
The distinction between a company’s sales, its profit and the price an investor pays still matters. Higher revenue does not always cover energy, labour and debt costs. A higher bond yield does not guarantee a short-term return, and an interest-rate decision cannot by itself restore energy supply.
30 days
What happened
The 26 August starting backdrop: growth with cautious consumption
This period begins on 27 August. Data released a day earlier establish its starting conditions, rather than being news within the period. The second estimate of US second-quarter gross domestic product, released on 26 August, showed annualised growth of 1.5%. That is about 0.4% above the previous quarter, not 1.5% growth in three months. Private domestic demand grew faster than the headline measure, so a single figure did not describe conditions for every business.
Consumption data also showed that more dollars spent do not necessarily mean more goods bought. July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, released on 26 August, showed annual price growth of 3.7%. Real consumption expenditure, which removes the effect of prices, increased by less than 0.1% over the month. This distinction is worth remembering when reading companies’ reports of rising revenue.
The 26 August backdrop and September results: technology demand became profit
Technology results provided the strongest counterweight to cost concerns. On 26 August, chip designer NVIDIA reported quarterly revenue of 96.221 billion US dollars, up 106% year on year. Operating profit under US accounting standards grew even faster, by 124%. These are results for the quarter ended 26 July, although the company calls it the second quarter of fiscal 2027.
Semiconductor and infrastructure software company Broadcom also confirmed revenue growth on 2 September. Its quarterly revenue reached 29.6 billion dollars, up 86% year on year. Two companies do not represent the whole sector, but their results show that some demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure has already turned into sales. How much the customers buying that equipment will earn remains a separate question.
Early September: growth and more expensive energy appeared in the same picture
European statistics did not allow a simple choice between good growth and bad inflation. The preliminary euro-area estimate for August, released on 1 September, showed annual consumer price inflation of 3.3%, compared with 2.9% in July. Energy prices rose 14.3% year on year, while services inflation slowed. Prices were moving unevenly, rather than the entire consumer basket getting more expensive at one uniform pace.
On 7 September, euro-area second-quarter growth was revised to 0.6% quarter on quarter. That was a better estimate of an earlier period, not extra growth that suddenly appeared in September. The US increase of 162,000 jobs in August, announced on 4 September, also showed resilience. June and July gains had been much smaller. Businesses still had customers, but that did not make it easier to promise rapid interest rate cuts.
The oil problem was delivery as well as price
Unreliable supply complicated the energy story. On 5 and 8 September, US Central Command reported strikes on Iranian tankers. These are statements from a party to the conflict, not an independent measurement of all oil flows. Even so, they were a reminder that June’s diplomatic agreement did not yet mean shipping had been reliably restored.
The US Energy Information Administration’s 9 September forecast projected an average Brent price of about 90 US dollars per barrel in the second half of the year. That was an increase of 8 dollars, or roughly a tenth, from the previous forecast of 82 dollars. Model inputs were finalised on 3 September, so this revision cannot be attributed to later military statements. It is a forecast, not today’s exchange price. For hauliers and energy-importing industry, what matters is whether actual improvements in supply bring lower bills.
10 September: Europe chose higher interest rates
The European Central Bank decided to raise all three key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. The deposit facility rate rose from 2.25% to 2.50% on 16 September. The decision has been made, but its effective date is not its announcement date.
In the bank’s forecasts, the energy shock remains an obstacle to returning inflation to its 2% target. That complicates conditions for companies facing higher fuel and borrowing costs at the same time. Banks’ interest income may rise, but weaker customers increase the risk of loan defaults. A central bank rate increase is therefore not equally good news for the entire financial sector.
11 September: annual inflation did not rise, but the monthly message was not reassuring
The US Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose 3.4% year on year in August, the same as in July. The monthly change, adjusted for normal seasonal patterns, nevertheless accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%. These data were already released on 11 September; this is not a future event.
The picture excluding food and energy is also mixed. Annual growth slowed from 2.5% to 2.4%, but monthly growth rose from 0.2% to 0.3%. It is therefore inaccurate to say that all price pressure intensified by the same amount. The central bank will have to consider both the pace in recent months and the broader trend.
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How can annual inflation stay unchanged while monthly inflation rises?
The annual change compares the price level with the same month a year earlier. The monthly change compares two adjacent months. A new price increase can replace a similar older month, leaving the annual figure unchanged. The measure excluding food and energy helps show the direction of other prices, but does not capture a household’s whole bill.
? How should we read GDP and price indices?
Gross domestic product measures the value of final goods and services produced in an economy. Real growth removes the effect of prices. US quarterly growth is often reported at an annualised rate, as if the same change continued for four quarters. The Consumer Price Index measures a basket of prices weighted by consumption. Its annual and monthly changes have different comparison bases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index also includes spending made on consumers’ behalf, uses different weights and accounts for changes in the composition of consumption; these two price indices should not be treated as interchangeable.
11 September: the wait for an energy supply recovery grew longer
The International Energy Agency’s 11 September forecast projected a larger fall in oil supply than in demand this year. This is a forecast, not the final annual result.
France’s example: money is available, but it costs more
France’s ten-year government bond yield benchmark was 4.48% on 14 September, compared with 4.19% on 1 September. The move over these sessions is 0.29 percentage points; it is not a monthly investment return. The higher cost of new debt can increase the budget’s interest expense over time, but coupons on existing fixed-rate debt do not automatically change.
16–24 September: the relief in interest rates did not last
On 16 September the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75–4.00%. An earlier European decision lifting the deposit rate to 2.50% took effect on the same day. The US ten-year yield fell to 4.96% on 21–22 September, but reached 5.18% on 24 September. A few days of easier financing conditions did not become a lasting direction.
The preliminary US Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, reached 58.4 in the release of 23 September, compared with 56.0 in August. Initial unemployment benefit claims of 197,000 for the week ending 19 September, released on 24 September, reinforced the picture of resilience. These are newer signals, but neither a survey nor one week of claims is a final measure of an entire quarter’s growth.
? Purchasing Managers’ Index: what does the threshold mean?
The company survey compares activity with the previous month. Above 50 generally indicates expansion and below 50 contraction. A reading of 58.4 does not mean growth of 58.4%; the preliminary measure may be revised.
September’s decisions extended beyond the US and euro area. On 18 September the Bank of Japan set an overnight interest-rate target of 1.25%, effective from 24 September. On 17 September the Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75%. These different paths matter for Japanese bonds and yen-funded investments, as well as British companies’ borrowing costs.
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30 days
What matters now
23–25 September: growth did not remove cost risk
Crude stocks are rising, but fuel stocks offer less comfort
More crude oil in storage does not mean fuel-supply pressure is over. On 23 September the US Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude stocks, excluding the strategic reserve, rose by 3.0 million barrels to 426.4 million in the week ending 18 September. They were around 2% above the five-year seasonal average. Petrol stocks, however, were 6% below their own average and distillate stocks 12% below theirs.
? Distillates and seasonal averages: what is being compared?
Distillates include diesel and heating-oil products. Each product’s stock is compared with its own average for the same time of year over five years. A 12% shortfall is neither a 12% rise in diesel prices nor the same share of total fuel demand.
Refining helps explain the gap. US plants processed 519,000 fewer barrels of crude per day than a week earlier, taking throughput to 16.8 million barrels a day. Less crude being processed can leave more in storage while replenishment of finished fuels slows. This does not mean every missing barrel must translate into a higher price, but it shows where there is less protection against another disruption.
For hauliers, airlines and energy-intensive manufacturers, the final fuel bill matters. For refiners, the difference between product selling prices and crude purchase prices matters, so rising crude inventories alone do not explain their profits. Higher refining throughput and replenished product stocks would create an opportunity for fuel-sensitive sectors. Another supply interruption before stocks recover is the risk. Subsequent EIA weekly reports will show whether the gap is narrowing.
Europe has less growth to absorb higher costs, while technology must earn a return on expansion
The world economy has not stalled, but regions face different cost pressures. On 23 September the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development forecast global growth of 2.9% in 2026. Its projections were 2.2% for the US and 1.0% for the euro area. These are forecasts from the same organisation, not final full-year results. Slower European demand leaves companies less room to pass higher energy and interest costs on to customers.
Revenue growth alone is therefore insufficient in European industry and retail. What matters is whether sales volumes also increase and profit margins hold up. Property businesses refinancing debt face an additional interest bill. An earlier European Central Bank decision raised its deposit rate to 2.50% from 16 September. That remains part of the backdrop, not a new decision today.
Investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure provides a counterweight. The organisation identifies it as a support for growth and trade, but also warns about greater reliance on external funding. An equipment order can immediately lift the supplier’s revenue, while the data-centre owner still needs customers, electricity and enough cash flow to service loans. A supplier making a sale and its customer earning a return on that investment are not the same event.
The opportunity remains with companies able to support expansion with real orders and cash generated by their operations. Risk is greater where expensive construction and debt pay off only under an optimistic demand scenario. Memory-chip maker Micron’s results presentation on 30 September will help test data-centre demand and supply. It is an upcoming signal for the supply chain, not a promise that its shares or the technology sector will rise.
Two opposing forces are shaping portfolios
Resilient US demand supports business sales, but higher bond yields increase the cost of new finance. Energy adds another constraint: rising crude inventories do not guarantee the same improvement in finished fuels. It therefore makes little sense to label every bond unattractive or every technology company equally resilient. Debt maturity, cash reserves and the speed at which investment starts earning money differ.
In bonds, the higher starting yield must be weighed against potential price swings and the issuer’s ability to pay. In equities, revenue growth needs to be checked against margins and cash flow. Slower European growth makes it harder to pass costs on, while stronger US demand may keep rates elevated for longer. For a euro investor, exchange rates also affect unhedged dollar holdings; an unverified currency move is not presented as fact here.
A more favourable combination would be slower price increases, rebuilding fuel stocks and resilient corporate profit. The adverse combination would be expensive funding alongside weakening demand. The latest evidence does not make either outcome inevitable.
30 days
What comes next
Three signals that could change the conclusion
- US prices and spending on 30 September. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will test whether price pressure is easing; real spending will separate a greater volume of purchases from a larger bill.
- Micron’s results on 30 September. Memory-chip orders, pricing and planned investment matter alongside headline revenue growth. The results had not been released by this edition’s cutoff.
- The next US fuel-stock reports. Watch whether refining throughput, petrol stocks and distillate stocks recover together. An increase in crude alone will not answer the whole question.
? Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: what does it measure?
This index measures changes in the prices of goods and services consumed, including spending made by others on consumers’ behalf. Its weights adjust with the composition of spending, so it is not identical to the Consumer Price Index. Price growth and growth in real consumption answer different questions.
Important. This is general market analysis, not a personal recommendation to buy or sell. Historical data and company results do not guarantee future returns. Forecasts and conditional scenarios may not materialise.
How is the history preserved and updated?
All five periods in this edition share one information date. Week means the latest 7 days, quarter means 90 days, and year means the trailing 12 months. The next dated edition will have a separate URL. This text keeps its date and assessment; later events are not silently inserted into an older edition. Longer periods assess new evidence alongside earlier developments without repeating every headline.
