Apartment Prices or Global Stocks in 2026: Which Grew More?

1. Q2 2026: no longer a one-month jump

In the latest OHBI report, apartment prices rose by another 1.0% in June. Over the whole of Q2—from the end of March to the end of June—the index increased by about 3.6%.

The annual rate remained in a very similar 12–12.5% range throughout the first half of the year. This means +12.5% was not the result of one unusual month. Growth was not limited to Vilnius either: the annual change was in double digits in all five monitored cities.

Source: UAB “Ober-Haus”, OHBI, June 2026.

But “apartment prices in Lithuania” sounds broader than it really is. OHBI is an apartment price index for five cities. It does not show how the values of detached houses, farmsteads, commercial property, or land plots changed over the same period. Even within the same city, a specific home can move differently because of its location, condition, energy efficiency class, or liquidity.

2. +12.5% is not an answer until we choose the comparison

Over the same June 2025–June 2026 period, MSCI World Net Total Return EUR rose by 24.7%. In Q2 2026, it gained about 14.7%. In the latest period, global equities grew roughly twice as fast as apartment prices in the five largest cities.

That does not mean equities are always better. One year is a short period, and the indicators being compared are not identical:

• OHBI is a price index. It excludes rental income, repairs, insurance, management, taxes, vacant periods, and transaction costs.
• MSCI World Net Total Return EUR measures total equity returns in euros. Dividends are reinvested after standard dividend withholding taxes. The result of a specific ETF may differ because of its fees and tracking difference.
• Property is often purchased with a loan. Leverage can increase the return on equity, but it also increases interest-rate and cash-flow risk.

The right question is not “which number is higher?” The right question is: what do I receive after all income, expenses, taxes, financing, and time spent, for the specific risk I take?

3. The 32-year view: the gap is smaller than one year suggests

From January 1994 to June 2026, the apartment price index for the five largest cities rose by +1,059.4%, or an average of 7.9% per year. Global equities rose by +1,189.5%, or an average of 8.2% per year.

An initial index level of 100 became roughly 1,159 for apartment prices and 1,290 for equities. A theoretical €100,000 tracking only these index changes would have grown to about €1.16 million and €1.29 million, respectively.

This is not an actual investor account result: the property example excludes rent and expenses, while the equity example excludes the fees of a specific fund. It nevertheless shows the power of compounding clearly. The annual difference appears small, but it becomes meaningful over more than three decades.

4. Does everything really rise—and everything fall in a crisis?

Both indices rose over the long term, making it easy to assume that they simply follow the same economy. That is partly true: economic growth, wages, credit conditions, inflation, and investor confidence affect many asset classes. Over shorter periods, however, their reactions differ substantially.

The calculated correlation between the monthly changes of the two indices since 1994 is only about 0.07. This is a very weak relationship: the fact that equities rose or fell this month says little about the OHBI change in the same month.

Changes were calculated from month-end index values.

Both markets fell in 2008–2009, but the decline in apartment prices did not end there: from the peak at the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2013, OHBI ultimately fell by about 41%. Equity prices absorb information almost immediately, whereas property transactions are infrequent, prices adjust more slowly, and some properties are simply not sold.

This is where diversification matters: not because one asset class always rises when another falls, but because their difficult periods do not necessarily begin, deepen, and end at the same time.

5. Risk is not only the depth of a decline, but also the waiting time

The largest decline in global equities from a previous peak during this period was about −55.7%. For apartment prices, it was about −41.2%. At first glance, property appeared safer. For an investor, however, the time spent waiting for a new record also matters.

• Apartment prices: approximately 14 years and 3 months passed between the 2007 peak and a sustained return above it.
• Global equities: after the peak of the 2000 technology bubble, investors waited approximately 13 years and 6 months for a new record in euro terms.

We see an equity decline every day in an app. We often do not see a property decline until we request a valuation or try to sell. That may feel more comfortable psychologically, but it is not the same as lower risk. An illiquid asset simply reveals its price less often.

6. What this comparison does not show

The summary answers a narrow question: how the apartment price index for five cities and the total return of global equities in euros changed. When deciding where to invest your money, at least five more layers must be added.

1. Income. Rent can materially increase property returns, while dividends are already included in the equity index.
2. All expenses. Property should be assessed after repairs, insurance, management, taxes, vacant periods, and transaction costs.
3. Financing. A loan changes the outcome: the down payment, interest rate, loan term, and cash-flow buffer all matter.
4. Liquidity and time. Equities can be sold quickly; an apartment cannot. Property also usually requires more active work.
5. Concentration. One apartment is located in one city and neighbourhood; MSCI World spreads capital across many companies and countries, although it is not protected from market declines either.

7. What does this mean for an investor?

My conclusion is not “sell property and buy equities,” or the reverse. Both choices generated substantial nominal value growth over the long term. Both spent very long periods below a previous peak. And either can be good or bad depending on the price, financing, time horizon, and structure of all your assets.

If you own your home, have another apartment for rent, and keep most of your savings in Lithuanian property, the real question may not be “should I buy a third apartment?” It may instead be: how much does my financial security depend on one country, one asset class, and the same economic drivers?

If all your capital is in equities and you will need the money in two years, a high long-term return does not solve the short-horizon problem. Your portfolio must suit your goals and your ability to remain invested through a difficult period—not a statistical average.

Five questions worth answering before you decide

• How much of my wealth is already linked to Lithuanian property and my employment income?
• How much cash will I need over the next 3–5 years?
• What real return do I receive after all costs and taxes?
• Could I withstand a 40–55% decline and more than a decade without a new record?
• How much time do I want to spend managing property and monitoring investments?

Methodology and sources

OHBI: UAB “Ober-Haus” Lithuanian Apartment Price Index, June 2026, pp. 1, 3, and 16. Open the OHBI report.

Global equities: monthly MSCI World Net Total Return EUR data through May 2026 from Curvo; the June 2026 change from Investing.com, applied to the May index level.

Calculations: month-end data, 1994-01–2026-06. CAGR is the compound annual growth rate. Correlation was calculated from monthly changes.