At the start of the year, the second pillar had 1.446 million participants and EUR 10.609 billion in assets. After two exit phases, around 781,000 people remain in the system, while the net asset value reported by the providers stands at around EUR 5.787 billion. In just over six months, the system has almost halved.
At first glance, everything looks straightforward: people left, so the amount of money in the funds fell. But the figures tell a more interesting story. The officially reported cash flows from the first and second waves exceeded EUR 5.1 billion. Once partial and special payments are included, the total may have reached around EUR 5.4 billion. This is a well-founded estimate, not a consolidated figure published in a single official report.
An even more important signal is the pace. During the first quarter, 515,000 participants exited under the standard route. During the second, the figure was 104,500. In other words, the second wave was almost 80% smaller. This does not change the scale of what has already happened, but it significantly changes what can be expected next.
−46%
−45.5%
Around 14% more in phase two
1. The first wave: a decision hundreds of thousands had been waiting to make
The first phase covered applications submitted between January and March 2026. 515,000 people, or 35.6% of the participants at the start of the year, stopped saving under the standard exit route. This was not a normal quarterly fluctuation. As soon as the option to leave became available, years of accumulated dissatisfaction, distrust in the system and a desire to manage the money personally were acted upon at once.
There were other choices as well. Around 31,000 participants withdrew 25% of their accumulated balance without stopping their contributions. Almost 25,000 stopped saving with no more than five years remaining until retirement, and almost another 10,000 did so because of a serious health condition or other reasons provided for by law.
Around EUR 2.9 billion was paid to people who exited under the standard route alone. A further EUR 1.3 billion, representing the state contribution and earlier Sodra contributions, was returned to Sodra. The officially reported flow from the main first wave therefore amounted to around EUR 4.2 billion. Partial payments and payments to special categories increased the true total, but their exact consolidated amount was not published in a single official report.
How the number of people saving changed
1.446 million
Before the exit window
875,000
LIPFA’s April snapshot
515,000 exited under the standard route
781,000
July 2026 snapshot
A further 104,500 exited under the standard route
Who was most likely to leave? Sodra data showed that younger people aged 25–35 and participants on middle incomes exited most actively. The older a person was and the higher their income, the smaller the share who left. This matters when forecasting the future: the group with the strongest desire to leave has probably already made its decision.
2. The second wave: much smaller, but still nearly a billion euros
Between April and June, another 104,500 participants decided to exit under the standard route. In addition, 1,700 stopped saving because of a serious illness, 9,500 because they were approaching retirement, while 5,700 withdrew a quarter of their accumulated funds and remained in the system.
During the second phase, EUR 672.4 million was paid to people and EUR 272 million was transferred to Sodra. A total of EUR 944.4 million left the funds. This represents around 22.5% of the officially reported main first-wave flow, but it is still an enormous amount for a single quarter.
The average participant who left had accumulated just over EUR 9,000. Roughly one third went to Sodra, while the person received around EUR 6,400. One noteworthy detail is that EUR 2,700 of this amount came from the person’s own contributions, while as much as EUR 3,700 was investment return earned by the funds.
How much money left the funds during each phase
3. Why do cash flows and the change in NAV not match?
This is where the two figures most often confused with each other appear. At the end of 2025, the funds’ net asset value was EUR 10.609 billion. On 14 July 2026, based on the fund data published by all six providers, it was around EUR 5.787 billion. The direct decrease is EUR 4.822 billion, or 45.5%.
The officially reported figure was around EUR 4.2 billion for the main first-wave flow and EUR 944.4 million for the second-wave flow, or more than EUR 5.1 billion combined. Once partial and special payments are included, the true amount was higher and may have reached around EUR 5.4 billion. However, this estimated figure should not be subtracted from NAV to the nearest cent, because the first-wave amount was rounded and the reporting dates and categories of payments included differ.
After a weaker start to the year, the funds earned around EUR 906 million in investment returns and received around EUR 160 million in contributions during the second quarter alone. As a result, the visible fall in NAV is smaller than the cash outflow. An exact day-by-day reconciliation is further affected by market movements between the quarterly report and the providers’ latest NAV figures.
NAV is not a report of payments. It is the balance remaining after three processes taking place at the same time: payments, new contributions and market returns.
4. How much did the assets of each pension provider decrease?
I added together the NAV of all second-pillar funds operated by each provider. I compared the Bank of Lithuania’s figures for 31 December 2025 with the data published by the providers themselves on 14 July 2026.
Providers’ second-pillar NAV: the start of the year and now
| Provider | NAV 2025-12-31 | NAV 2026-07-14 | Decrease | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swedbank | EUR 3.823bn | EUR 1.855bn | −EUR 1.968bn | −51.5% |
| SEB | EUR 2.724bn | EUR 1.586bn | −EUR 1.137bn | −41.8% |
| Allianz | EUR 1.567bn | EUR 0.838bn | −EUR 0.729bn | −46.5% |
| Artea | EUR 1.319bn | EUR 0.820bn | −EUR 0.499bn | −37.8% |
| Luminor | EUR 0.841bn | EUR 0.468bn | −EUR 0.373bn | −44.4% |
| Goindex | EUR 0.336bn | EUR 0.220bn | −EUR 0.116bn | −34.5% |
| Total | EUR 10.609bn | EUR 5.787bn | −EUR 4.822bn | −45.5% |
The largest decrease was recorded by Swedbank: almost EUR 2 billion, or more than half the assets it managed at the start of the year. This provider alone accounted for around 41% of the total visible fall in market NAV. Goindex and Artea recorded the smallest relative changes.
However, this table cannot be used to determine directly which provider invested better. The change in NAV is affected by the age and composition of clients, their decisions to leave, partial withdrawals, contributions and the market returns of different life-cycle funds. Above all, it shows the change in the scale of assets managed by a provider, rather than investment quality alone.
5. Where did the money withdrawn by participants go?
The Bank of Lithuania’s analysis of the first wave provided an answer that may be even more important than the number of people who left. According to April data, 72% of the withdrawn funds were still in bank and credit institution accounts. Around 16%, or approximately EUR 450 million, had been withdrawn as cash.
Where was the first-wave money in April?
16% – withdrawn as cash
6% – used for mortgages and consumer loans
Around 1% – directed to the third pillar and investment-linked life insurance
6% – destination not precisely identified
These figures disproved the expectation that all the money would immediately turn into consumption. Most of it remained in accounts. But that is not yet an investment strategy; it is merely a deferred decision. Money held in a current account no longer fluctuates like equities, but inflation can quietly erode its purchasing power.
Repaying debt may be a rational decision for some people, particularly if the interest rate on the loan is high. For others, having a reserve is more important. Others still have a long investment horizon and may direct part of the money into a broadly diversified portfolio. There is no single right product for everyone, but there is a right sequence of decisions.
Set aside an emergency reserve. First, keep the equivalent of 3–6 months of essential expenses somewhere readily accessible.
Assess your debts. Compare the interest you are guaranteed to save with a realistic investment return and the associated risk.
Separate short- and long-term goals. Money that will be needed in two years should not be invested in the same way as retirement savings for 20 years from now.
Set rules for your portfolio. Decide on the asset allocation, contribution schedule, cost limit and what you will do when markets fall.
6. What can be expected next?
The option to exit will remain available until the end of 2027, leaving another six full quarters after the second wave. No one knows the exact final number today. Nevertheless, the second wave has already shown the direction: the number who exited under the standard route fell from 515,000 to 104,500, or by almost 80%.
There is also a flow in the opposite direction. More than 20,000 new pension saving agreements have been entered into since the start of the year: some people are returning or starting to save again. The future number of participants will therefore depend not only on those leaving, but also on new agreements.
Three mechanical scenarios to the end of 2027
In the low-exit scenario, each subsequent wave would be half the size of the previous one. Around another 103,000 people would leave during the remaining period, leaving approximately 678,000 in the system.
In the base scenario, each new wave would decrease by 30%. A further 215,000 participants would then leave, with around 566,000 remaining at the end of 2027.
In the high-exit scenario, the waves would decrease by only 10% each time. In this case, another 441,000 people would leave and around 340,000 would remain.
Given the current fivefold slowdown in the pace of exits, the range between the low-exit and base scenarios appears the most reasonable: around 0.55–0.68 million participants at the end of 2027. If there is no new political or market shock, the funds’ NAV could remain at around EUR 4–5.5 billion. This is my calculated range, not an official forecast: market returns, contributions, new agreements and partial withdrawals could materially change the final outcome.
What should be monitored over the coming quarters? Not only the number of people leaving. It will be necessary to look at the flow of new agreements, how much of the money withdrawn moves from accounts into consumption or investments, how providers’ NAV changes and whether political communication creates a new wave of decisions.
7. The most important decision begins after leaving
The second pillar lost almost half its participants and assets in six months, but it has not disappeared. The first wave was enormous and concentrated; the second was almost 80% smaller. This suggests that the largest one-off shock has already occurred, although the system’s final size will not become clear until the end of 2027.
For an individual, the most important question is not simply ‘stay or leave?’. If the money has already been withdrawn, the decision is not over. It has merely moved from the pension fund to your account.
The greatest difference after 5–10 years will be created not by the fact that you left, but by what you do next: whether the money is spent, used to reduce expensive debt, left in an account to lose value, or invested according to a clear plan tailored to your goals and risk tolerance.
Data and sources
Bank of Lithuania: second-pillar fund NAV and participant data for Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 – pension fund performance indicators.
First wave: figures presented to the Seimas by Sodra, the Bank of Lithuania and LIPFA – LRT, 2026-04-15.
Second wave: 104,500 participants who exited under the standard route, EUR 672.4 million in payments to people, EUR 272 million transferred to Sodra and 781,000 participants remaining – LRT, 2026-07-15.
Use of withdrawn funds: Bank of Lithuania analysis – LRT, 2026-06-10.
Investment returns and contributions: second-quarter fund results – LRT, 2026-07-09.
Latest NAV by provider, 2026-07-14: Swedbank, SEB, Allianz, Artea, Luminor and Goindex. All fund values were aggregated by management company.
Disclaimer. This article is for information and educational purposes. The scenarios are the author’s calculations based on public data, not an official forecast or personal investment recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.
